Science by popular appeal has never worked. Science is, and should be independent of polls.
This site (www.forecastadvisor.com) shows something really interesting: the accuracy of forecasts put out by the various weather services. For example, Boise's current 5-day forecast is:
This is actually correct, at least for today. It's a bit rainy and a bit cold with overcast conditions, rare for this desert region.
Now, let's see the forecast accuracy:
Last year, the best any of these guys could achieve was 76%. This year, last month, the best they could do was be right 89% of the time. While some may see this and think they're getting better, I don't believe so. What little I know about the weather makes me think the numbers will probably go lower when a year is taken into account.In other words, I'm now sure what this graphic means by "Last Year"; I also don't know what they mean by forecast accuracy. Ah, just saw there was another link for "Further Analysis":
These are the one- to three-day out accuracy percentages for high temperature, low temperature, icon forecast precipitation (both rain and snow), and text forecast precipitation (both rain and snow). Temperature accuracy is the percentage of forecasts within three degrees. Precipitation accuracy is the percentage of correct forecasts. The forecasts are collected in the evening.
Interesting data!
However, what I am sure of is, I don't want life on earth as we know it to be changed drastically based on a 77% ability to predict what the low temperature is on a particular day last month, much less 50 years from now.
2 comments:
Read carefully, Delot. I didn't say Global Warming doesn't exist, I said science should not be dependent on popular feelings or appeal.
Scientists do not all agree that Global Warming exists. There are scientists who say Global Warming does exist, but it's part of the earth's cooling and heating cycle that occurs naturally, and thus not caused by human behavior. There are places on earth that are cooler now than they have ever been. There are places that are hotter. Then there are those scientists who say Global Warming is a myth. There is no consensus.
What I can't stand is the brouhaha that surrounds the "earth is dying" ideology, because it's bullshit; there is simply not enough data to prove anything conclusively and I refuse to make any changes to large-scale economies simply because some smelly, pot-smoking Hippy professor says so, when in the 70s he was talking about Global Cooling.
Attempting to conflate Global Warming and the moon landings is a fallacy. Now, tell me why, Delot. Read up on fallacies and tell me why.
Oh men, quoting Albertus Gorus, the Man of Wood.
Gore's a nut, donchaknow? :-)
Post a Comment